TY - JOUR

T1 - Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming

AU - Liu, Bing

AU - Martre, Pierre

AU - Ewert, Frank

AU - Porter, John R.

AU - Challinor, Andy J

AU - Müller, Christoph

AU - Ruane, Alex C

AU - Waha, Katharina

AU - Thorburn, Peter J

AU - Aggarwal, Pramod K

AU - Ahmed, Mukhtar

AU - Balkovič, Juraj

AU - Basso, Bruno

AU - Biernath, Christian

AU - Bindi, Marco

AU - Cammarano, Davide

AU - De Sanctis, Giacomo

AU - Dumont, Benjamin

AU - Espadafor, Mónica

AU - Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan

AU - Ferrise, Roberto

AU - Garcia-Vila, Margarita

AU - Gayler, Sebastian

AU - Gao, Yujing

AU - Horan, Heidi

AU - Hoogenboom, Gerrit

AU - Izaurralde, Roberto C

AU - Jones, Curtis D

AU - Kassie, Belay T

AU - Kersebaum, Kurt C

AU - Klein, Christian

AU - Koehler, Ann-Kristin

AU - Maiorano, Andrea

AU - Minoli, Sara

AU - Montesino San Martin, Manuel

AU - Naresh Kumar, Soora

AU - Nendel, Claas

AU - O'Leary, Garry J

AU - Palosuo, Taru

AU - Priesack, Eckart

AU - Ripoche, Dominique

AU - Rötter, Reimund P

AU - Semenov, Mikhail A

AU - Stöckle, Claudio

AU - Streck, Thilo

AU - Supit, Iwan

AU - Tao, Fulu

AU - Van der Velde, Marijn

AU - Wallach, Daniel

AU - Wang, Enli

AU - Webber, Heidi

AU - Wolf, Joost

AU - Xiao, Liujun

AU - Zhang, Zhao

AU - Zhao, Zhigan

AU - Zhu, Yan

AU - Asseng, Senthold

PY - 2019/4

Y1 - 2019/4

N2 - Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer-India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.

AB - Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer-India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.

U2 - 10.1111/gcb.14542

DO - 10.1111/gcb.14542

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 30536680

VL - 25

SP - 1428

EP - 1444

JO - Global Change Biology

JF - Global Change Biology

SN - 1354-1013

IS - 4

ER -