TY - JOUR

T1 - Durum wheat quality prediction in Mediterranean environments

T2 - from local to regional scale

AU - Toscano, P.

AU - Gioli, B.

AU - Genesio, L.

AU - Vaccari, F. P.

AU - Miglietta, F.

AU - Zaldei, A.

AU - Crisci, A.

AU - Ferrari, E.

AU - Bertuzzi, F.

AU - La Cava, P.

AU - Ronchi, C.

AU - Silvestri, M.

AU - Peressotti, A.

AU - Porter, John Roy

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - Durum wheat is one of the most important agricultural crops in the Mediterranean area. In addition to yield, grain quality is very important in wheat markets because of the demand for high-quality end products such as pasta, couscous and bulgur wheat. Grain quality is directly affected by several agronomic and environmental factors. Our objective is to determine the general principles underlying how, in Mediterranean environments, grain protein content (GPC) is affected by these factors and provide a system model with high predictive ability. We initially evaluated the capability of the Delphi system to simulate GPC in the major Italian supply basins (Basilicata, Capitanata, Marche, Tuscany) for 9 years (1999-2007) a month ahead of harvesting and we then analyzed relations between Delphi system errors and selected environmental variables during flowering and grain filling stages. The results were evaluated on the basis of regression with observed GPC, while errors were calculated performing a linear correlation analysis with environmental variables. The model showed a high capability to reproduce the inter-annual variability, with important year to year differences, with better performance in the southern study areas (Basilicata and Capitanata). In this study the highest overestimation occurred in conjunction with the year (2004) characterized by the lowest quality in terms of GPC, lowest average temperature in May and highest yield production for the whole study period.

AB - Durum wheat is one of the most important agricultural crops in the Mediterranean area. In addition to yield, grain quality is very important in wheat markets because of the demand for high-quality end products such as pasta, couscous and bulgur wheat. Grain quality is directly affected by several agronomic and environmental factors. Our objective is to determine the general principles underlying how, in Mediterranean environments, grain protein content (GPC) is affected by these factors and provide a system model with high predictive ability. We initially evaluated the capability of the Delphi system to simulate GPC in the major Italian supply basins (Basilicata, Capitanata, Marche, Tuscany) for 9 years (1999-2007) a month ahead of harvesting and we then analyzed relations between Delphi system errors and selected environmental variables during flowering and grain filling stages. The results were evaluated on the basis of regression with observed GPC, while errors were calculated performing a linear correlation analysis with environmental variables. The model showed a high capability to reproduce the inter-annual variability, with important year to year differences, with better performance in the southern study areas (Basilicata and Capitanata). In this study the highest overestimation occurred in conjunction with the year (2004) characterized by the lowest quality in terms of GPC, lowest average temperature in May and highest yield production for the whole study period.

KW - Calibration

KW - Crop Modelling

KW - Durum wheat

KW - Grain protein content forecasting

KW - Scenarios

U2 - 10.1016/j.eja.2014.08.003

DO - 10.1016/j.eja.2014.08.003

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:84906770764

VL - 61

SP - 1

EP - 9

JO - European Journal of Agronomy

JF - European Journal of Agronomy

SN - 1161-0301

ER -