Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production: 1970-2050
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Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production : 1970-2050. / Bennetzen, Eskild Hohlmann; Smith, Pete; Porter, John Roy.
In: Global Change Biology, Vol. 22, No. 2, 2016, p. 763-781.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production
T2 - 1970-2050
AU - Bennetzen, Eskild Hohlmann
AU - Smith, Pete
AU - Porter, John Roy
N1 - © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
PY - 2016
Y1 - 2016
N2 - Since 1970 global agricultural production has more than doubled; contributing ~1/4 of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) burden in 2010. Food production must increase to feed our growing demands, but to address climate change, GHG emissions must decrease. Using an identity approach, we estimate and analyse past trends in GHG emission intensities from global agricultural production and land-use change and project potential future emissions. The novel Kaya-Porter identity framework deconstructs the entity of emissions from a mix of multiple sources of GHGs into attributable elements allowing not only a combined analysis of the total level of all emissions jointly with emissions per unit area and emissions per unit product. It also allows us to examine how a change in emissions from a given source contributes to the change in total emissions over time. We show that agricultural production and GHGs have been steadily decoupled over recent decades. Emissions peaked in 1991 at ~12 Pg CO2 -eq. yr(-1) and have not exceeded this since. Since 1970 GHG emissions per unit product have declined by 39% and 44% for crop- and livestock-production, respectively. Except for the energy-use component of farming, emissions from all sources have increased less than agricultural production. Our projected business-as-usual range suggests that emissions may be further decoupled by 20-55% giving absolute agricultural emissions of 8.2-14.5 Pg CO2 -eq. yr(-1) by 2050, significantly lower than many previous estimates that do not allow for decoupling. Beyond this, several additional costcompetitive mitigation measures could reduce emissions further. However, agricultural GHG emissions can only be reduced to a certain level and a simultaneous focus on other parts of the food-system is necessary to increase food security whilst reducing emissions. The identity approach presented here could be used as a methodological framework for more holistic food systems analysis.
AB - Since 1970 global agricultural production has more than doubled; contributing ~1/4 of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) burden in 2010. Food production must increase to feed our growing demands, but to address climate change, GHG emissions must decrease. Using an identity approach, we estimate and analyse past trends in GHG emission intensities from global agricultural production and land-use change and project potential future emissions. The novel Kaya-Porter identity framework deconstructs the entity of emissions from a mix of multiple sources of GHGs into attributable elements allowing not only a combined analysis of the total level of all emissions jointly with emissions per unit area and emissions per unit product. It also allows us to examine how a change in emissions from a given source contributes to the change in total emissions over time. We show that agricultural production and GHGs have been steadily decoupled over recent decades. Emissions peaked in 1991 at ~12 Pg CO2 -eq. yr(-1) and have not exceeded this since. Since 1970 GHG emissions per unit product have declined by 39% and 44% for crop- and livestock-production, respectively. Except for the energy-use component of farming, emissions from all sources have increased less than agricultural production. Our projected business-as-usual range suggests that emissions may be further decoupled by 20-55% giving absolute agricultural emissions of 8.2-14.5 Pg CO2 -eq. yr(-1) by 2050, significantly lower than many previous estimates that do not allow for decoupling. Beyond this, several additional costcompetitive mitigation measures could reduce emissions further. However, agricultural GHG emissions can only be reduced to a certain level and a simultaneous focus on other parts of the food-system is necessary to increase food security whilst reducing emissions. The identity approach presented here could be used as a methodological framework for more holistic food systems analysis.
KW - Agriculture
KW - Air Pollutants
KW - Animals
KW - Carbon Dioxide
KW - Climate Change
KW - Crops, Agricultural
KW - Forecasting
KW - History, 20th Century
KW - History, 21st Century
KW - Livestock
KW - Methane
KW - Models, Theoretical
KW - Nitrous Oxide
KW - Historical Article
KW - Journal Article
KW - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
U2 - 10.1111/gcb.13120
DO - 10.1111/gcb.13120
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 26451699
VL - 22
SP - 763
EP - 781
JO - Global Change Biology
JF - Global Change Biology
SN - 1354-1013
IS - 2
ER -
ID: 169137234