Modelling survival: exposure pattern, species sensitivity and uncertainty
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Modelling survival : exposure pattern, species sensitivity and uncertainty. / Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight; Cedergreen, Nina; Charles, Sandrine; Ducrot, Virginie; Focks, Andreas; Gabsi, Faten; Gergs, André; Goussen, Benoit; Jager, Tjalling; Kramer, Nynke I.; Nyman, Anna-Maija; Poulsen, Veronique; Reichenberger, Stefan; Schäfer, Ralf B.; Van den Brink, Paul J.; Veltman, Karin; Vogel, Sören; Zimmer, Elke I.; Preuss, Thomas G.
In: Scientific Reports, Vol. 6, 29178, 2016.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Modelling survival
T2 - exposure pattern, species sensitivity and uncertainty
AU - Ashauer, Roman
AU - Albert, Carlo
AU - Augustine, Starrlight
AU - Cedergreen, Nina
AU - Charles, Sandrine
AU - Ducrot, Virginie
AU - Focks, Andreas
AU - Gabsi, Faten
AU - Gergs, André
AU - Goussen, Benoit
AU - Jager, Tjalling
AU - Kramer, Nynke I.
AU - Nyman, Anna-Maija
AU - Poulsen, Veronique
AU - Reichenberger, Stefan
AU - Schäfer, Ralf B.
AU - Van den Brink, Paul J.
AU - Veltman, Karin
AU - Vogel, Sören
AU - Zimmer, Elke I.
AU - Preuss, Thomas G.
PY - 2016
Y1 - 2016
N2 - The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test the ability of GUTS to predict survival of aquatic organisms across different pesticide exposure patterns, time scales and species. Firstly, using synthetic data, we identified experimental data requirements which allow for the estimation of all parameters of the GUTS proper model. Secondly, we assessed how well GUTS, calibrated with short-term survival data of Gammarus pulex exposed to four pesticides, can forecast effects of longer-term pulsed exposures. Thirdly, we tested the ability of GUTS to estimate 14-day median effect concentrations of malathion for a range of species and use these estimates to build species sensitivity distributions for different exposure patterns. We find that GUTS adequately predicts survival across exposure patterns that vary over time. When toxicity is assessed for time-variable concentrations species may differ in their responses depending on the exposure profile. This can result in different species sensitivity rankings and safe levels. The interplay of exposure pattern and species sensitivity deserves systematic investigation in order to better understand how organisms respond to stress, including humans.
AB - The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test the ability of GUTS to predict survival of aquatic organisms across different pesticide exposure patterns, time scales and species. Firstly, using synthetic data, we identified experimental data requirements which allow for the estimation of all parameters of the GUTS proper model. Secondly, we assessed how well GUTS, calibrated with short-term survival data of Gammarus pulex exposed to four pesticides, can forecast effects of longer-term pulsed exposures. Thirdly, we tested the ability of GUTS to estimate 14-day median effect concentrations of malathion for a range of species and use these estimates to build species sensitivity distributions for different exposure patterns. We find that GUTS adequately predicts survival across exposure patterns that vary over time. When toxicity is assessed for time-variable concentrations species may differ in their responses depending on the exposure profile. This can result in different species sensitivity rankings and safe levels. The interplay of exposure pattern and species sensitivity deserves systematic investigation in order to better understand how organisms respond to stress, including humans.
KW - Journal Article
U2 - 10.1038/srep29178
DO - 10.1038/srep29178
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 27381500
VL - 6
JO - Scientific Reports
JF - Scientific Reports
SN - 2045-2322
M1 - 29178
ER -
ID: 169106903