TY - ABST

T1 - Using a systems thinking approach to investigate the impact of climate change on livestock production in Australia

AU - Nguyen, Quan Van

AU - Nguyen, Nam Cao

PY - 2013/7/14

Y1 - 2013/7/14

N2 - The impact of climate change on livestock production is a complex problem, involving interactions among several sectors such as environmental, social, economic and political systems. Historical data on climate such as monthly temperature, average annual and seasonal rainfall across the regions and states over more than 100 year record (1910s - 2012) were acquired and analysed; while statistic figures on animal production, land use and annual economic contribution were collected over the last 40 years (1972 - 2012). Overall, changes in frequency of extreme temperature and rainfall reliability have a direct effect and lead to a reduction in animal productivities, crop and pasture production. This causes a decline in livestock product supply and crop and feedstock supply, leading to an increase in food cost and feed cost. In addition, research related to climate change, public media reports, policies and regulations together play important roles in mitigating and adapting to climate change. These factors affect livestock production directly through their influence on public concern of climate change, leading to changes in management practices. Although there have been various scientific evidences on the impact of climate change, it would take time to raise public concern on this matter. A systems thinking approach is employed in this study to understand the overall impact of climate change on Australian livestock production and identify systemic intervention strategies to address this complex problem. It also helps to enhance knowledge and practices in animal management systems in Australia. Through the application of systems thinking and causal loop diagrams, three most important systemic intervention strategies are recommended: enhancing research related to climate change; enhancing public concern by providing appropriate education programs to the public and training programs to relevant stakeholders; and controlling the stocking rate to reduce pressures on crop and pasture production.

AB - The impact of climate change on livestock production is a complex problem, involving interactions among several sectors such as environmental, social, economic and political systems. Historical data on climate such as monthly temperature, average annual and seasonal rainfall across the regions and states over more than 100 year record (1910s - 2012) were acquired and analysed; while statistic figures on animal production, land use and annual economic contribution were collected over the last 40 years (1972 - 2012). Overall, changes in frequency of extreme temperature and rainfall reliability have a direct effect and lead to a reduction in animal productivities, crop and pasture production. This causes a decline in livestock product supply and crop and feedstock supply, leading to an increase in food cost and feed cost. In addition, research related to climate change, public media reports, policies and regulations together play important roles in mitigating and adapting to climate change. These factors affect livestock production directly through their influence on public concern of climate change, leading to changes in management practices. Although there have been various scientific evidences on the impact of climate change, it would take time to raise public concern on this matter. A systems thinking approach is employed in this study to understand the overall impact of climate change on Australian livestock production and identify systemic intervention strategies to address this complex problem. It also helps to enhance knowledge and practices in animal management systems in Australia. Through the application of systems thinking and causal loop diagrams, three most important systemic intervention strategies are recommended: enhancing research related to climate change; enhancing public concern by providing appropriate education programs to the public and training programs to relevant stakeholders; and controlling the stocking rate to reduce pressures on crop and pasture production.

KW - Faculty of Science

KW - Systems thinking

KW - climate change impacts

KW - livestock production

KW - Australia

M3 - Conference abstract in proceedings

BT - Proceedings of the 57th World Conference of the International Society for the Systems Sciences

CY - Hai Phong, Vietnam

T2 - The 57th World Conference of the International Society for the Systems Sciences

Y2 - 14 July 2013 through 19 July 2013

ER -